All posts by Deborah Binder

Wandering Thoughts and the Future

Thoughts exist within a world of references and intentions. Content analysis of “wandering” thoughts has shown that such “stimulus-independent” thoughts are largely goal-directed and future oriented (Baird et al, 2011). Thoughts can be conversational and goal-directed at the same time. Imaginary conversations are like rehearsals; we silently speak to ourselves when planning. Even when we are rehashing past conversations, what may start as an act of memory often becomes elaborated, with what we shoulda, coulda, woulda said, if only we had thought of it at the time. This is one way the social animal prepares for future interactions.

Reference:

Benjamin Baird , Jonathan Smallwood, and Jonathan W. Schooler (2011) Back to the future: Autobiographical planning and the functionality of mind-wandering. Consciousness and Cognition Volume 20, Issue 4, 604–1611

Growing GDP to Reduce Emissions and Save the Planet

Growth in global GDP increases energy consumption in the near term but reduces GHG emissions over the longer term.  Economic growth promotes urbanization, education of women, delay of childbearing, lower fertility rates, improved agricultural productivity, and technological innovation. These developments ultimately reduce emissions via fewer humans, more land available for wild habitat and reforestation, and increased energy efficiency. As economies become increasingly affluent, urban and service-based, further reductions in emissions are achieved through changes in transportation and consumption patterns. Healthy and growing economies will also be able to generously fund R&D to continually improve on ways to reduce energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy consumption.

Sounds a bit too idealized? These processes are already happening. For instance, in the US energy intensity – measured as energy consumption divided by GDP – has been dropping for decades. Carbon intensity has been dropping as well.  A carbon tax would help quicken the pace of change. Of course, a carbon tax would need to be phased in gradually so as not to disrupt economic growth.

Reference:

Carbon vs. Energy Intensity; posted on January 14, 2013 by Maximilian Auffhammer (the George Pardee Professor of International Sustainable Development at the University of California Berkeley). https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2013/01/14/carbon-vs-energy-intensity/

 

When the Criminal is a Victim

I would imagine that many people who commit criminal acts are victims of abusive caregiving, awful environments, or at least genetically-influenced traits that facilitate criminal behavior (e.g., impulsiveness, mental illness, substance abuse, cognitive impairments). As victims, should these offenders get special treatment in the criminal justice system?  Specifically, should they be able to avoid incarceration, or at the very least receive much reduced sentences?

The answer depends on what we’re trying to achieve through incarceration. Glad you asked:

  1. Deter criminal behavior
  2. Protect society through temporary incapacitation of criminal offenders
  3. Discourage recidivism

It’s well established that the certainty of being caught is a much bigger crime deterrent than the severity of punishment.  Crime rates do go down when incarceration rates go up, but that’s because fewer criminals are on the street, not because would-be criminals are afraid of lengthy sentences.  Across numerous studies, there has been no correlation found between crime rates and median time served.

This isn’t to say that incarceration has no value as deterrence –being caught would lose its sting if it weren’t accompanied by some sort of punishment. While the stigma of imprisonment varies across groups and individuals, and some criminals are just “incorrigible” (repeat offenders inattentive to legal threats), removal from society for a while may persuade others to reconsider a life of crime.   And since most criminals do not reoffend after release from prison (at least within 3 years), it does appear that incarceration discourages recidivism to some extent.

Whether some groups of offenders should be treated leniently depends on how this special treatment would influence crime and recidivism rates in general and how it would affect the behavior of the individuals in question.  If leniency for “criminal victims” encourages more crime, then no.

Of course, there will be cases where leniency is called for – but that would mainly be for individuals who are at low-risk for reoffending anyway and whose extenuating circumstances are sufficiently extreme or unusual that others are unlikely to consider them relevant to their own decisions whether or not to break the law.

References

Daniel Nagin, “Deterrence in the 21st Century,” in Crime and Justice in America: 1975-2025 (ed. Michael Tonry, University of Chicago Press, 2013).

Impact of Prison Experience on Recidivism http://www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/recidivism/pages/prison-experience.aspx Accessed 9/10/2016

National Institute of Justice: Five Things about Deterrence; July 2014.

 

Reconsidering the Basic Income Guarantee

In several posts I have supported a modest Basic Income Guarantee (BIG), with the proviso that it be sufficiently miserly not to disincentivize work or add to the federal budget.  My thought was that a BIG of about $700/mo would do the trick.

But we all know that a guaranteed income of $700 a month would provide an incentive for some people to work less or not at all. Especially young people with no children or with children but other sources of income. So it would be inevitable that labor market participation would decrease to some extent, even with a modest BIG.  And as with labor market participation, so with tax receipts.

But the issue isn’t just with declining tax receipts. The longer you’re out of the job market, the harder it is to get back in. Skills get rusty. Employers get doubtful. The law of inertia sets in.

Self-efficacy predicts goal setting and goal persistence. Mastery experiences feed self-efficacy. The most important source of mastery experiences is successful performance.  Lack of successful experiences – opportunities to perform –  zaps self-efficacy.

Bottom line: the longer you’re out of it, the harder it is to get back in.

Many European countries had generous  long-term unemployment benefits  in the late 20th century.  Just about all have tightened conditions and shortened these benefits because they  led to decreased labor market participation. These benefits,  in which people had expectations of being able to collect benefits for several years,  are a better proxy for if BIG were a real thing, country-wide, than the example of the few small scale BIG experiments in developed countries, where participants know they’re in a study and have no such expectations).

So,  I’m no longer in favor of even a modest BIG.Instead, I’d focus on benefits for targeted groups: single parents,  limited English speakers, the poorly educated and low-skilled.  lunches, etc.).

For starters,  I’d eliminate all the federal grants and student loans and  provide a stipend (roughly $1000/mo) for up to 6 years total for all US adults enrolled at least half-time in post-high school education and training (including ESL, basic skills, pre-vocational, vocational, and college). The standard state grants and loans and fee waivers would still be available.  The stipend would not be means tested, so recipients could continue to work (part-time work not being a risk factor for school completion).

 

 

Mindfulness and Being Present: Part III

“Mindfulness entails concentrated awareness of one’s thoughts, actions or motivations. Mindfulness involves continually bringing one’s awareness back into the present moment.”

– What is Mindfulness?

If “being present” is a type of “parallel awareness” that can co-exist with focal attention, what are the neurological correlates of “parallel awareness”? What evidence supports the existence of parallel awareness?

If there is evidence, is it something rare except in individuals who are expert practitioners  of mindfulness? Or is what seems like parallel awareness just a super-quick back-and-forth switching of focal attention?

Mindfulness and Being Present: Part II

“Mindfulness entails concentrated awareness of one’s thoughts, actions or motivations. Mindfulness involves continually bringing one’s awareness back into the present moment.”

– What is Mindfulness?

If “being present” involves focusing on things (albeit in the “here and now”) and to be focused on something is by necessity and definition a selective process (i.e., selective attention), what are the desired objects of focal attention and what is best kept in the background or shadows of the attentional spotlight? Why are some objects more worthy of focal attention and other objects less worthy?

Mindfulness and Being Present: Part I

“Mindfulness entails concentrated awareness of one’s thoughts, actions or motivations. Mindfulness involves continually bringing one’s awareness back into the present moment.”

– What is Mindfulness?

What does it mean to have awareness in “the present moment”?  What does it mean to be “present”? Why is it is desirable to be “present”?

Does “being present” require a continuous activity of “gently redirecting” the exploring mind to information that is coming in through the senses? I call it the “exploring” mind because the type of mental activity labeled as “thoughts” has been found to be goal-directed; the analogy is less billiard balls going hither and yon than of seeking resolution of unfinished business.

Note:  you don’t need a homunculus for brain/mind processes to be goal-directed.

Global Population Growth and What to Do About It

Global population growth is not slowing down fast enough. The problem is Africa. Just about everywhere else, fertility rates are (roughly) at or below replacement levels. But Africans still want, and have, big families. This is partly a matter of the imperatives of rural farming (where children are important sources of labor), partly poverty (where you have to overshoot because most of the children will not be around to support you in old age) and partly cultural drag (where men rule and children are sources of status).

What to do???

Do everything we can to make universal access to contraception possible. Do everything we can to encourage urbanization. Do everything we can to help governments handle the challenges of urbanization (infrastructure, public health, sanitation, safety, education). Do everything we can to increase the education of women (so they have options other than submitting to the demands of men). Do everything we can do to encourage late marriage (since fertility falls precipitously after 30). Do everything we can to stimulate economic growth (since hope discourages youthful childbearing).

Then keep our fingers crossed. And keep trying.

 

Small Farms, Large Farms, and Forests

In a recent post I wrote how Vietnam’s stronger land tenure rights have contributed to reforestation in the countryside by giving smallholders a greater stake in maintaining their woodlands, which have economic value. But context is all: Secure property rights is not a cure-all for environmental degradation.  Vietnam has a lot of other things going for it, including a major forest rehabilitation program and a strong state that can enforce compliance with government initiatives. Add a growing economy that is rapidly industrializing and urbanizing, the people of Vietnam can afford to be forward-thinking in the management of their natural resources.

These advantages are absent in many countries. In conditions of extreme poverty, life is pretty much hand-to-mouth. Short-term survival takes precedence over long-term planning and stewardship of natural resources. Take the case of El Salvador, where rural poverty and variability of income are a leading cause of tree cover loss in coffee growing areas. Since shade grown coffee sells at a premium, many farmers have sought to maintain trees on their lands for their coffee to be certified as shade grown. But the coffee market is subject to periodic oversupply crises, and when that happens, prices drop so much that even premium beans cannot command enough for poor farmers to meet their basic subsistence needs.  So they clear portions of their land, sell the wood, and plant basic food crops.

The main lesson: small scale subsistence farming is a lose-lose proposition: it perpetuates poverty and degrades the environment. Smallholders cannot afford to be stewards of their environments: between the vagaries of growing conditions and food prices, they can’t count on a stable income year to year, so they have little incentive to forego additional income or food now for better returns later. Larger farms are in a better position to ride out price fluctuations and to maintain the long-term vitality of their land.

(And please don’t suggest subsidies for poor farmers:  https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/agricultural-subsidies-reform-government-support )

Reference:

Allen Blackman, Beatriz Ávalos Sartorio, and Jeffrey Chow (2007) Tree Cover Loss in El Salvador’s Shade Coffee Areas RFF Discussion Paper 07-32

 

 

 

Biodiversity: Costs, Benefits, and the Big Picture

The Copenhagen Consensus Center does research on the costs and benefits of various policy approaches to global problems and provides information on which policy targets will do the most social good relative to their costs – acknowledging that factors other than cost/benefit ratios are also important. This is from their cost/benefit analysis on different approaches to biodiversity:

Biodiversity Cost-Benefits

Translation: the figures on the right represent the economic benefit value for every dollar in cost. Looks pretty good to me: most policies considered give a lot of bang for their buck. The lone exception is “increase protected areas”, but the net cost is not that much. Seems like a bargain to me.

Many businesses subsidize some products through the profits they make on other products – why should policy approaches be different? You have to look at the whole mix of policies, not just the costs and benefits of each policy considered separately.