Climate Change and Saving Polar Bears

While admirably trying to save the planet from global warming, many environmental activists seem to undermine their efforts by focusing on a narrow range of possible solutions. Sometimes ideology plays a role: there is an anti-capitalist, anti-technology streak within the environmental movement that resists suggestions that involve harnessing the profit motive or engineering know-how. And then there is a certain amount of zero-sum reasoning: if humans gain, the planet loses – therefore, the only way to save the planet is through deep and permanent sacrifice on the part of humans.

Of course, some sacrifice will be necessary – the question is how much, what type, and how implemented. But a focus on sacrifice can backfire and become counter-productive. For instance, GDP growth can reduce environmental impact (e.g., through creating diverse job opportunities for women and fostering women’s education, which is the single best indicator of family size; through agricultural intensification and reduction in small holdings, resulting in more land available for reforestation and wild habitat; through spreading carbon decoupling and de-materialization processes that are associated with economic development – to name a few). There are multiple paths to reducing GHGs and the impact of climate change on the environment – I think all should be explored with an open mind. Instead, what I see again and again is a kind of “my way or the highway” attitude toward climate change mitigation and adaptation, with a strong bias for “natural” rather than “artificial” solutions.

Case in point is a recent interview with Steven Amstrup, who studies polar bears for the US Geological Survey. Asked what the most important thing is that can be done to save the polar bear, Amstrup responds,Absolutely the most important thing – and really the only thing – that will save polar bears in the long run is to stop the rise of greenhouse gases and stop the warming of the planet” (italics added). He then goes on to dismiss alternative solutions, such as relocating polar bears to other habitats (they evolved in the Arctic and so are only able to live in Arctic conditions); restricting hunting (a good thing but still inconsequential in the long run); teaching polar bears to hunt like grizzles and so be able to exploit a different habitat (nope, polar bears are too specialized, while grizzlies and brown bears are more adaptable); creating floating platforms that serve the same function as floating ice (nope, too big of a project and fake ice lacks essential qualities of real ice); and, finally, zoos and captive breeding (nope, baby polar bears need to grow up in the wild with their mamas teaching them hunting skills).

Amstrup makes good points through the interview. All the possible solutions have problems. But he stops there – where the problem is identified. I kept hoping for some discussion of serious research addressing these problems to see if they can be minimized or eliminated. There was none. Could artificial platforms be designed that make a better substitute for floating ice? (After all, if we’re creating lab-raised meat, perhaps we can develop algae and mollusk-attracting platforms.) Could transition programs be developed so that captive-bred polar bears could be trained to survive when they are returned to wild habitat when conditions improve? Are there initiatives to further explore these options – or are they being dismissed out of hand? If the latter, what a shame. If the Arctic ice all melts, and we never really developed a Plan B, the polar bears will go extinct.

Big Federal Fixes and Some Ways to Think about Them

This is about how to think about proposed Big Federal Fixes, such as the Basic Income Guarantee, the Paycheck Fairness Act, or free tuition for all public colleges. Questions to ask:

What is the problem the proposal is intended to Fix? What is the extent and nature of the problem? How has the problem changed over time? What is the trend: is it improving, getting worse or staying the same? How fast is change happening? What factors may be changing the extent or nature of the problem?

What might be the causes of the problem? What might be the conditions that exacerbate or reduce the problem? How would the Fix being proposed affect these causes or conditions?

What are the potential benefits and costs of the Fix being proposed? What trade-offs are involved? What are possible unintended consequences/ripple effects (especially on other areas we’re trying to Fix)? What are alternative proposals to address the problem? How do they compare to the Fix in terms of the above questions? Why are they inadequate?

Has the proposed Fix been tried elsewhere? What were the results? Why might our results be the same or different?

What are the best arguments against the proposed Fix? Why are they ultimately unconvincing? (Avoid the Straw Man Fallacy, ignoring the actual position of those with whom one disagrees and substituting a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position, which then becomes easy to knock down.)

Regarding the proposed Fix, how easy would it be to retract if it turns out not to work or even make things worse? If the Fix is implemented, what might be some ways one rationalizes the costs or lack of progress associated with the Fix? (Be on the look out for blaming problems on outside factors or uncooperative parties and then proposing additional Fixes to deal with these factors/parties.)

If the Fix were implemented, what is a reasonable amount of time to see if it is actually helping matters? What data will one collect, not only to track changes in the extent and nature of the problem, but also to determine causes or factors that account for the changes? For instance, if the trend was already positive (the problem was becoming less severe over time before the Fix), how does one know whether the Fix made a difference if the trend continued after the Fix? What data will one collect to see if there are unwelcome side effects of the Fix? Cost/benefit analysis doesn’t stop at implementation.

Just a beginning of a process of thinking within the problem space….

Truth and Consequences

The promise of science:

“…truth emerges as a large number of flawed and limited minds battle it out.” (Jonathan Haidt – The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion)

“The values of science: to seek to explain the world, to evaluate candidate explanations objectively, and to be cognizant of the tentativeness and uncertainty of our understanding at any time.” (Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined)

Compare with:

“…truth does not proceed from the application of general scientific rules that are valid also in natural science, but is defined by its origin.” (Leszek Kowlakowski, Main Currents of Marxism, about how the Communist Party defined the criteria of truth).

Ideological commitment often makes for bad science, because it’s easier for ideologues to rationalize non-confirming evidence. Being smitten with the grand vision can blind one to the inconvenient facts on the ground.   The broader and longer the view, the more room for confirmation bias to work.

Ideologues don’t pivot easily. They hold on to their canned goods long after the past-due date. Businesses are more likely to pivot because it’s in their self-interest to do so. For example, conspiracy theories notwithstanding, it’s rarely in a pharmaceutical company’s self-interest to suppress negative evidence from clinical trials, because if a drug has problems, it will come back and bite them. Survival in a competitive market place requires quickly identifying and fixing one’s mistaken notions. It’s less love of truth than aversion to the consequences of getting something wrong.

The attitude of reverence gives founders and masters a special authority on the truth, so that the search for truth requires achieving a correct understanding of what the founders and masters meant when they said whatever. This has nothing to do with science. Scientists don’t consult masters or sacred texts to figure out the “right” way to understand something. We don’t look to Darwin for a correct understanding of evolution, even though we may look to Darwin for insights on how evolution works.

Beware of certainty on topics one can’t possibly be certain about. Voltaire said doubt is uncomfortable, but certainty is absurd. Comfort with uncertainty may go against our nature but it is vital to getting closer to the truth of things.

Paraphrasing David Eagleman, the 3 words that science has given humankind: “I don’t know”.

 

Should “Yes means Yes” be the standard for determining sexual assault on college campuses?

In 2015 any California college or university that receives state financial aid must begin using a “yes means yes” approach toward sexual assault. That means both parties must give ongoing, affirmative consent during any sexual activity. Rather than using a “no means no” approach, the definition of consent under the new legislation requires “an affirmative, unambiguous and conscious decision” by each party to engage in sexual activity. Per the legislation: “It is the responsibility of each person involved in the sexual activity to ensure that he or she has the affirmative consent of the other or others to engage in the sexual activity. Lack of protest or resistance does not mean consent, nor does silence mean consent. Affirmative consent must be ongoing throughout a sexual activity and can be revoked at any time. The existence of a dating relationship between the persons involved, or the fact of past sexual relations between them, should never by itself be assumed to be an indicator of consent.”

Under this law, college disciplinary committees will evaluate whether a sexual assault has taken place. Individuals found to have engaged in sexual assault may be expelled from school.

Advocates for the “Yes means Yes” law say it’s long overdue. According to one 2007 study, 1 in 5 college women have been sexually assaulted. Our current cultural approach to sex undeniably puts the onus on women to say “no.” We buy into a sexist double standard that characterizes men as incessantly sex-crazed to the point of nonexistent self-control, forcing women to constantly police their partners and protect their purity. “Yes means yes” legislation re-frames sex so that both partners are held accountable for their actions.

Consent legislation doesn’t aim to unnecessarily micro-manage autonomous citizens, but rather the opposite: its purpose is to disrupt a problematic social status quo. We live in a “rape culture,” or a culture in which sexual violence is normalized, sex is framed in negative terms (we emphasize that “no means no”), and especially couched in rhetoric of blame (of survivors over perpetrators). Affirmative consent turns rape culture on its head and creates a positive, healthy framework of sexuality.

The Huffington Post puts it well: “This legislation teaches us what we can and should do rather than retroactively addressing transgressions. It’s not a restriction of our actions, but the opposite: it provides the structure to realize a whole new world of positive possibilities. At the end of the day, the only real solution to eradicating sexual assault will not be found in punitive measures, but in the construction of a society that is educated about and embraces healthy sexuality: a goal at the heart of this law.”

Critics of the “Yes means Yes” law say it’s an example of extreme overreach and sends universities into murky, unfamiliar legal waters. How will campus triers of fact determine whether an “explicit yes” was repeatedly rendered, satisfying the “ongoing” consent requirement? College disciplinary committees have fewer safeguards than criminal courts: often the accused has no right to a lawyer and no chance to cross-examine witnesses. The committees also tend to determine guilt based on a “preponderance of evidence” rather than “beyond a reasonable doubt”. This means that the accused can be found guilty if the panel thinks it slightly more likely than not that he is. And disciplinary action is not trivial: being expelled and labeled a rapist can follow a student for the rest of his life and ruin his reputation forever.

According to Joe Cohn of the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, “Under this consent standard, if one partner touches his or her partner in a sexual way, and the person says ‘I am not interested tonight,’ that person has already committed sexual assault because he or she didn’t get permission upfront. It’s just not consistent with how adults act.”

Furthermore, sexual violence in America has actually declined sharply since the mid-1990s. According to the National Crime Victimization Survey, the gold standard for measuring crimes that are often not reported, the proportion of women subjected to rape or sexual assault fell 64% between 1995 and 2005, and declined slightly further by 2010, to 1.1 per 1,000 women per year. The reason some studies show a much greater prevalence of sexual assault is that their definition of assault is so broad, including, for instance, unwanted touching.

So what do you think? Is “Yes means Yes” a long overdue remedy for the epidemic of sexual assault that plagues our campuses and society at large? Or is it an example of overreach that is unnecessarily intrusive and has the potential to ruin lives?

The Milgram and Stanford Prison Experiments

Minimalist synopsis of the Milgram and Stanford Prison Experiments: subjects were willing to hurt others if they thought this was what authority figures wanted from them. Both studies serve as cautionary tales of how easily humans can be manipulated by authority figures into committing atrocious acts against their fellows.

For me, the main lesson of these studies is a bit different – it is the danger of living in totalitarian environments. By “totalitarian”, I mean a social environment where there are no dissenting views expressed. Humans typically seek social validation of their views – without which, niggling reservations rarely rise to the level of conviction. And without the courage of conviction, it’s awfully hard to resist the powers that be. We’ll just follow orders, however uncomfortable we feel about them.

Sometimes all you need is one discordant voice making waves to bring out your own doubts and give you the courage to take a stand: no, I won’t. For instance, in Milgram’s study, only 4 of 40 subjects agreed to continue in the experiment if they observed others refusing to comply.

What this tells me is that when everyone in one’s reference group appears to agree on something, it’s hard not to go along.  And it’s hard to think otherwise, because we don’t have sounding boards for working out our thoughts. We don’t have models to give us the courage to say something. To cultivate critical thinking and the ability to disagree, we need to resist the tendency to surround ourselves with the like-minded and be willing to engage those who see things differently.

Mindfulness and the Ideological Square: Emphasize Our good things – Part III

Unless I want to spend the next decade on this project, I won’t be going into a lot of detail about each study that addresses the benefits of mindfulness. Let’s just look at a couple meta-analyses. One, “Mindfulness-based therapy: A comprehensive meta-analysis “(2013), concludes that mindfulness-based therapies are “an effective treatment for a variety of psychological problems”, but the authors also note that the moderate effectiveness of MBT “did not differ from traditional CBT [Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy] or behavioral therapies … or pharmacological treatments.”

The other meta-analysis was “The effect of mindfulness-based therapy on anxiety and depression: A meta-analytic review” (2010), which analyzed 39 studies (out of 727 originally identified as possible candidates for review). The authors found that mindfulness-based treatments were moderately effective for anxiety and depression, with stronger effects for individuals with anxiety and mood disorders. But their meta-analysis included many non-controlled studies, so how can we interpret these results?

Looking more closely at the 39 studies, 23 had no control or comparison group, 16 included a control or comparison group, of which 8 were waitlist controls, 3 were treatment-as-usual (TAU), and 5 actually had an active comparison treatment. So that’s 5 out of 39 MBT studies with a decent control group. But wait: of the 5 studies that were described as having “active controls”, two were “education programs” and two were types of art therapy. Education programs and art therapy are insufficient comparison treatments because they do not match the main intervention in common factors of efficacious treatments or placebo effects. (Note: I have designed such comparison interventions, so know a bit whereof I speak). Only one of the 5 studies listed as having an active control condition could be called an empirically supported “real” intervention – and that was cognitive-behavior group therapy, a condition with a grand total of 18 participants, representing just 1.5% of the 1,140 participants covered in the meta-analysis.

The authors of the 2010 meta-analysis actually criticize an earlier meta-analysis on the effect of mindfulness-based treatments partly because the authors of the earlier meta-analysis only reviewed controlled studies – and the other meta-analysis concluded that MBT does not have reliable effects on anxiety and depression.   To quote: “Our study suggests that this conclusion was premature and unsubstantiated. The authors included only controlled studies, thereby excluding a substantial portion of the MBT research.”

Well, yeah, that is a legitimate problem. I’d recommend more high-quality controlled studies to address it. Then do another meta-analysis.

The problem with the research record on mindfulness is the same problem that plagues a lot of psychotherapy research: experimenter bias, which can taint even controlled studies. James Coyne puts this point beautifully in Salvaging Psychotherapy Research: a Manifesto:

“The typical RCT [Randomized Controlled Trials] is a small, methodologically flawed        study conducted by investigators with strong allegiances to one of the treatments being      evaluated. Which treatment is preferred by investigators is a better predictor of the             outcome of the trial than the specific treatment being evaluated….

Overall, meta-analyses too heavily depend on underpowered, flawed studies conducted by investigators with strong allegiances to a particular treatment or to finding that      psychotherapy is in general efficacious. When controls are introduced for risk of bias or     investigator allegiance, affects greatly diminish or even disappear.”

So, where does that leave us? With the need to do more, better research on mindfulness-based treatments. In the meantime, it’s probably safe to say that mindfulness practice and mindfulness-based treatments are helpful in some ways, for some people – but a lot of questions remain unanswered. To the degree that mindfulness advocates present evidence about the wonderful effects of mindfulness as unequivocal and/or uncontested (much less “staggering”, as per Kabat-Zinn), they are exaggerating and overstating their case.

And that’s it for third corner of the ideological square: Emphasize Our good things – the idea being unquestionable evidence of unmitigated goodness. On to the last corner: De-emphasize Their good things.

Reference: Jon Kabat-Zinn Full Catastrophe Living: Using the Wisdom of Your Body and Mind to Face Stress, Pain, and Illness, Kindle Version, Revised Edition 2013; Bantam Books, New York

 

What If… and What Could be Done about It – Part II: Global Warming and Endangered Species

Note: This and several subsequent posts will be about possible adaptations to climate change. Serious consideration of adaptations does not require any slackening of effort to mitigate climate change.

In the last post, I mentioned that Arctic ice could disappear completely by 2100 and without the ice, some animals may very well go extinct, including polar pears and ring seals. And that’s just the (disappearing) tip of the iceberg….

It’s estimated that one in six species could disappear over the next century, with animals and plants in South America and Australia especially hard hit. What can we do to make this not happen?

A tendency I’ve seen among environmentalists and climate activists is to quickly knock down suggestions that seem “unnatural”. These individuals seem to favor solutions that protect and restore habitats but look askance at solutions that involve changing habitats, captive breeding, or the selective introduction of some endangered species into new habitats. The idea here is that ecosystems are so delicately balanced that you can’t change anything without ruining the whole thing.

Of course, there is some truth to that. But it’s the kind of categorical thinking that doesn’t acknowledge exceptions, trade-offs or matters of degree and undermines the problem-solving process. It’s the type of thinking that is quick to find issues with unfavored solutions and just stop there – oops, can’t do that – instead of considering these issues as something that can be fixed or at least minimized. When engineers find a problem in a design, they don’t throw out the plans – they say “what can we do to fix that?” That’s an attitude we all could benefit from. Besides tripping up creative problem-solving, the idea of a pristine state of nature is not exactly reality-based. Natural environments have been “invaded” and changed by invaders constantly throughout the history of our planet. Pristine environments free of human impact have been the exception to the rule for millennia. Which is not at all saying that those species will just have to live with us and our cats. Or die.

Here’s the thing: while protection, restoration and expansion of relatively human-free habitats are essential to saving endangered species, it is not enough. More needs to be done.

Polar bears provide an excellent case for illustrating the above points and for thinking through possible solutions to their plight. Next up.

Inspired by: Stewart Brand (2009) Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto

What If… and What Could be Done about It – Part I: Global Warming and the Sea

Note: This and several subsequent posts will be about possible adaptations to climate change. Serious consideration of adaptations does not require any slackening of effort to mitigate climate change.

We’ll start with the sea levels.Background: If all the ice on land were to melt (mostly Antarctica), then sea level would rise about 220 feet. If all sea ice melted (mostly in the Arctic), sea levels wouldn’t rise but, without human intervention, a lot of animals that depend on the sea ice to hunt will certainly go extinct (e.g. polar bears, ring seals). It is currently predicted sea levels will rise that 1 to 4 feet and end-of-summer Arctic Sea ice could disappear by 2100.

What types of adaptations would be necessary to reduce the damage to humans and the rest of the biosphere? Starting with humans, what have been some tried-and-true approaches to defend against sea encroachment and its side effects? Here, per Wikipedia, is what the Dutch have done:

“Natural sand dunes and human-made dikes, dams and floodgates provide defense against storm surges from the sea. River dikes prevent flooding from water flowing into the country by the major rivers Rhine and Meuse, while a complicated system of drainage ditches, canals and pumping stations (historically: windmills) keep the low lying parts dry for habitation and agriculture. Water control boards are the independent local government bodies responsible for maintaining this system.”

Okay, so they didn’t build the natural sand dunes – but engineering could figure out reasonable substitutes in the form of levees and seawalls. Of course, none of these are completely disaster-proof (e.g., most seawalls were overwhelmed during the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan). And there are trade-offs (e.g., eyesores and erosion). But limitations and trade-offs are part of almost every engineering project. You don’t just give up in the face of imperfection – you keep trying to do the best possible job and then continue to adjust the process as new knowledge and technology become available.

Engineering solutions would have to be complemented by maintaining and enhancing coastal ecosystems. For instance, wetlands and reefs play a critical role in “reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities to rising seas and coastal hazards, through their multiple roles in wave attenuation, sediment capture, vertical accretion, erosion reduction and the mitigation of storm surge and debris movement.” (Spalding et al;, 2014). Some islands and coastal areas may be able to increase the height of the ground.

A lot of people will still need to move inland, to higher ground, or off the island. By 2050, about 3.7 million people in the US alone may need to migrate away from coastline and areas vulnerable to storm surges and rising rivers. Over a longer course of time, we will see much greater migration away from vulnerable areas (Manhattan?).  For the US, such migration is manageable – there will still be plenty of empty space (currently at 35 people per kilometer). The US could also take in many more people from other countries, where there is little room for internal migration, such as Bangladesh.

None of this is to deny the likely down-side of large-scale migrations or the immense suffering of those who are forced to migrate. Migrations will bring about a host of new issues to deal with, including effects on the international order, global economy, and agriculture. That’s why advance planning and problem-solving are so important. Anticipation is half the battle.

 Reference:

Spalding et al; The role of ecosystems in coastal protection: Adapting to climate change and coastal hazards Ocean & Coastal Management Volume 90, March 2014, Pages 50–57

Mindfulness and the Ideological Square: Emphasize Our good things – Part II

The benefits of mindfulness receive a lot of press (e.g., see the Huffington Post ). Mindfulness boosters frequently cite scientific studies to support the case for mindfulness as a kind of cure-all for the ills of the modern age. Given that mindfulness meditation involves the near-constant control of attentional processes and ongoing mental distancing through “observing” thoughts, labeling mental activity as “just thoughts” and gently redirecting attention away from thoughts, it makes a lot of sense that certain neuropsychological tendencies and profiles would be found in meditators.

Given a worldview that values loving kindness and calm nonreactivity, it makes sense that mindfulness practitioners would report less stress and show fewer biomarkers for stress. It makes sense that mindfulness would be associated with greater well-being and happiness. Given hundreds or thousands hours of practice directing and redirecting attention, it makes sense that neural efficiency and connectivity patterns would be altered. The brain, body and personality all change with experience. If you spend hours and hours regulating cognitive, emotional and physiological processes in specific ways, your brain, body and personality will change in specific ways.

Questions remain regarding the mechanisms of change and how large and consistent these effects are. In books, blogs and the popular press one often sees statements that “researchers have found” or “studies show” without information on the quality or size of the studies involved or the robustness of the findings. When I check out the actual research, more often than not the researchers acknowledge the tentativeness of their conclusions and the need for replication. More often than not, the study design was not a randomized controlled trial and if even there was a control group, there was not a suitable comparison treatment condition. More often than not, the researchers did not appear to control for the placebo effect or factors common to most interventions (“common factors”) An example:

Take the study Prevention of Relapse/Recurrence in Major Depression by Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy by Teasdale, Segal, Williams and others. This study has been frequently cited in academic papers and used by mindfulness advocates as strong evidence of the benefits of mindfulness. For instance, here’s how Jon Kabat-Zinn summarizes the study: “…people with a prior history of three of more episodes of major depression taking the MBCT [Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy] program relapsed at half the rate of the control group, which only received routine health care from their doctor…This was a staggering result…” (Full Catastrophe Living, Kindle p. 7322)

Now for some context. This particular study had no active comparison therapy. The control group received “treatment as usual” (aka routine health care). The MBCT group actually had a higher rate of relapse for participants who had two-or-fewer prior depressive episodes, not quite statistically significant but trending that way (p=>.10). The benefit for MBCT (for participants with 3+ prior episodes) was seen with a few as 4 treatment sessions (out of 8 possible) but the authors do not let us know if additional sessions (up to 8) increased benefit. We also have no idea what the actual ingredients of change are. Without an active comparison group that matches MBCT in factors common to all efficacious treatments, we don’t know if anything specific to MBCT made a difference in participant outcomes.

(Quick word about “common factors”: these include things like therapeutic alliance, empathy, goal consensus/collaboration, “buy-in”, positive regard/affirmation, and congruence/genuineness. Common factors are thought to exert much more influence over therapy outcomes than factors specific to individual therapies – for more on common factors, see Laska, Gurman and Wampold 2014.)

Other types of therapies have also been associated with reduced relapse in chronic depressives such as Maintenance Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy and Behavioral Activation Therapy. So when we are told the results of the MBCT study are “staggering”, I’m thinking: promising, yes – staggering, hardly. Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy clearly has some value; for one thing, it provides practical tools to help reduce stress and regulate unruly thoughts and emotions. It probably does help with unproductive rumination. But are mindfulness meditation and mindfulness-based therapies that much better than what’s already out there? Hard to say – since the quality of the research often leaves much to be desired.

To be continued…

References

Kabat-Zinn, Jon Full Catastrophe Living: Using the Wisdom of Your Body and Mind to Face Stress, Pain, and Illness, Kindle Version, Revised Edition 2013; Bantam Books, New York

Laska, K. M., Gurman, A. S., & Wampold, B. E. (2014). Expanding the lens of evidence-based practice in psychotherapy: A common factors perspective. Psychotherapy;51:467–481. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0034332

Teasdale, J.D., Segal, Z., Williams, J.M.G., Ridgeway, J.A., Sousby, J.M., & Lau, M.A. (2000). Prevention of relapse/recurrence in major depression by mindfulness-based cognitive therapy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 68, 615–623.

 

Emotions, Appraisal and Mean Computers

I’ve been thinking about the idea of “appraisal” lately, especially in relation to the appraisal theory of emotion, which says the specific emotional experience depends on how something is “appraised”.

In two separate studies, subjects responded emotionally to the computerized agents they were interacting with, even though they were well aware these entities weren’t “real”. In one study, subjects were playing a game with their computerized opponent, who ends the game saying (in effect) “I no longer want to play with you”. Most subjects reported their feelings were hurt even though they knew that was ridiculous.

In the other study, subjects have a conversation with a digitized person. When the face of this “person” frowns, scowls and otherwise looks unfriendly, the subjects report not really liking him. When the face is friendly, laughs a lot, and mirrors the subjects’ facial expressions and head movements, the subjects report liking him.

So where is the appraisal in these emotional reactions?

Then recently I read a New Yorker article about an amnesiac whose hippocampus was completely destroyed. With her short-term memory gone, her temperament became easier to discern: cheerful, even joyful. So she has all these positive emotions – and they are often accompanied by some sort of appraisal (insofar as the emotion is expressed verbally and semantic content inevitably involves an evaluation and interpretation of the objects of her mirth). But how does appraisal work without a narrative context – without a remembered link to similar experiences? It would seem that appraisal without memory is a weakened version of appraisal. And how much of this “appraisal” is just  post hoc making sense of the feeling?

Does the concept of appraisal even add anything to the understanding of emotion? It seems to me that emotions are implicitly evaluative and interpretive, which is different from saying that appraisals lead to an emotion (even though re-appraising may defuse an emotion). For example, fear equals sense of threat, but it may be inaccurate to say a sense of threat leads to or causes fear. As for re-appraisal, if one can be convinced that something is not a threat, then one’s fear will subside. Then again, re-appraisal that is purely cognitive is much less likely to transform as emotion than a re-appraisal that taps into another emotion. Then it’s more like one emotion moderating another emotion. Maybe appraisals are just supporting players in our personal dramas.